Oil products price forecast mid-month update October 2023

The excel files associated with this report provide a mid-month update to our short-term products prices and margins forecasts. Prices and margins for October 2023 have been updated to reflect the oil price movements so far this month since our last update. Global refining margins have continued to weaken through the first few weeks of October, as gasoline cracks have crashed as Atlantic basin fundamentals have lengthened. HSFO cracks have followed suit, with Hydroskimming margins in Asia and Europe now negative. Distillate cracks have bucked the downward trend, with cracks broadly matching movements in crude pricing as global balances remain tight. Diesel cracks will continue to lead refining margins over the next several months, with Europe needing to price higher to re-open the E-W spread as seasonal maintenance limits exports to Europe, particularly from the Middle East and Asia. The next full update to our prices and margins forecast will be published on 1 November 2023.