Commodity Market Report
Oil products price forecast update December 2021
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
This update incorporates all of the price forecasts, crude differentials and refining margins through to end-2023 on a regional level. Global margins fell in November as demand concerns rose throughout the month, while the last week of the month saw a further sharp decline triggered by the emergence of the new Omicron variant. We expect the global margins to continue falling sharply in December, given the short-term demand concerns and the delayed response by global refiners to reduce run rates. Thereafter the global margin recovers to average US$3.70/bbl in Q1 2022 and US$4.10/bbl in Q2 2022 The next update to our prices and margins forecast will be our mid-month update published by close of business Thursday 16 December.
Table of contents
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Global margins slump as the emergence of the new Omicron Covid variant adds to demand concerns
- Brent Price Outlook
- Key Changes to our prices and margins view
- Crude price and differential analysis
- Regional refining margin analysis
Tables and charts
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What's included
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