Oil products price forecast update November 2021

This update incorporates all of the price forecasts, crude differentials and refining margins through to end-2023 on a regional level. Global refining margins trended lower through the second half of October on the back of a sharp downward correction in fuel oil cracks and easing of middle distillate cracks on limited gas to oil switching. We expect the composite margin to decline in November as fuel oil cracks will weaken due to increasing global length. Our outlook for Q4 2021 sees global margins averaging nearly US$2.00/bbl above the 5-year average. The next update to our prices and margins forecast will be our mid-month update published by close of business Tuesday 16 November.