Commodity Market Report
Oil products price forecast update November 2022
Report summary
This update incorporates all of the price forecasts, crude differentials and refining margins through to end-2024 on a regional level. Our monthly ex-RVO Global Composite margin rose in October to the highest monthly average since June. The monthly increase was led by a surge in middle distillate cracks, as Atlantic Basin supplies tightened significantly as refinery maintenance peaked. In Europe the tightness was exacerbated by the closure of over 70% of French refinery production due to industrial action. We expect the global composite margin to ease in November as global crude runs rebound sharply from the lows in October and the previously announced hike in Chinese oil product exports provides extra supply to the market in Asia.
Table of contents
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Global margins spike on strong distillate cracks as Atlantic basin balances tighten
- Methodology Enhancement
- Brent Price Outlook
- Key Changes to our prices and margins view
- Crude price and differential analysis
- Regional refining margin analysis
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