Oil products price forecast update November 2023

The excel files associated with this report provide an update to our short-term products prices and margins forecasts. Prices and margins for November 2023 have been updated to reflect the latest supply and demand changes in our balance forecast. Global refining margins dropped sharply in October with our global composite hitting the lowest level since July 2021 amidst a sharp seasonal change to gasoline cracks and a rapidly weakening HSFO market. The global refining system remains distillate-led, with strength in middle distillate cracks needed to offset weakness across all other products. The simultaneous decline in HSFO and gasoline cracks has materially impacted simple hydroskimming refining margins in Asia and Europe, with margins now limiting the incentive for marginal crude runs in both regions. The next update to our prices and margins forecast will be our mid-month update published on 16 November 2023.