Regional product markets short-term outlook May 2021

This update incorporates all of the regional crude runs and product-by-product supply-demand balances through to end-2022 on a regional level. In response to the weaker demand outlook in H1 2021, we have revised European and Asian H1 2021 crude runs down. To meet the stronger summer gasoline demand outlook, growth in Chinese demand and to reflect the ongoing testing of the new Al-Zour refinery, we have revised H2 2021 global crude runs higher. Despite Asian demand showing signs of positive recovery, ongoing regional maintenance and a downward revision to crude runs in both India and Japan in Q2 due to renewed lockdowns limit any upside. For 2021, we expect global crude runs to recover but remaining below 2019 levels by 4 million b/d.