Regional product markets short-term outlook May 2024

This update incorporates all of the regional crude runs and product-by-product supply-demand balances through to end-2025 on a regional level. Global crude processing averaged 80.71 million b/d in April, with utilization rates coming in at 77.7%, as maintenance continued in Europe and Asia. Overall runs remained flat month-on-month, an upward revision of 170 kb/d from our previous update. Looking forwards to May, crude runs are still expected to rise month-on-month despite our downward revisions as the global turnaround season continues to wind down. This increased refinery supply will put further pressure on distillate markets, with the European market in particular looking oversupplied while gasoline cracks have surged, suggesting refiners look to shift product yields lighter over the next few months.