Russia diesel export ban - what happens next?

Russia has temporarily banned exports of gasoline and diesel to all countries outside a circle of four ex-Soviet states with immediate effect in order to stabilise its domestic market. Russia is the single biggest global exporter of diesel/gasoil and could remove 700-900 kb/d of waterborne diesel supply from the global market, or ~3% of global demand. Gasoline exports account for a much lower volume, but since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict gasoline waterborne exports have increased to average around 200kb/d. We believe the market will quickly rebalance and the ban should conclude as domestic agricultural demand slows, as harvest season is completed.