Commodity Market Report

Russian Federation product markets long-term outlook H1 2020

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13 July 2020

Russian Federation product markets long-term outlook H1 2020

Report summary

In 2019, total products supply was in a position of surplus in the Russian Federation relative to demand. A large diesel/gasoil surplus is growing while the fuel oil surplus is narrowing on the back of ongoing refinery upgrades, as well as run cuts at low complexity sites. Russia has a smaller surplus of LPG, naphtha, gasoline and jet/kerosene. Overall, the Russian Federation has a relatively flat total product surplus in the medium term as high fuel oil yielding refineries struggle with the new export duty system and are forced to reduce crude runs, while others, who have completed upgrades, see a recovery in margins and crude throughputs. It is important to note that rouble price developments do affect refinery operations, and strengthening oil prices coupled with a lag in the rouble recovery has been supporting crude throughputs in 2017 and 2018. In the long-term, relatively stagnant demand results in a stable total product surplus.

Table of contents

  • Executive Summary
  • Demand: Russia embarks on a petrochemical journey
  • Supply: an uncertain future of fuel abundance
  • More is better: the surplus of light and middle distillates on the rise

Tables and charts

This report includes 2 images and tables including:

  • Demand by sector
  • Product balances - all supply versus demand

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Russian Federation.xlsx

    XLSX 1.10 MB

  • Document

    Russian Federation product markets long-term outlook H1 2020

    PDF 909.23 KB