Insight
Surging RIN prices and an uncertain future
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The United States Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) has garnered more headlines in 2021 than any year since 2013 when the program was at a pivotal crossroads for the future of biofuels blending. RIN prices are at record highs as biofuel feedstock costs have surged and legislative uncertainty clouds the program's future outlook for refiners. Even though a Supreme Court ruling later this year could send shock waves through the biofuels and refining industries, the EPA's new direction on Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) gives us a road map for the future.
Table of contents
- Introduction
- How does the RFS program work?
- Why did all RIN prices drop from 2018 to 2020?
- Court ruling reverses the slide
- High RIN costs are distorting arbitrage pricing
- Expect many unanswered questions to be resolved in 2021
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Table 1: EPA RFS biofuel blending mandate 2020
- Figure 1: EPA RIN Schematic
- Figure 2: Annual RINs generated by type
- Figure 3: RIN and RVO pricing (2016-present)
- Figure 4: Conventional RIN and corn pricing (2014-present)
- Figure 5: Corn and soybean pricing (2019-present)
- Figure 6: US Gulf Coast FOB cargo vs Northwest Europe FOB cargo price (US$/bbl)
What's included
This report contains:
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