The North American puzzle: where will refiners send surplus gasoline?

The long term North American refinery economics story mainly focuses on an emerging gasoline surplus. As fuel efficiency gains are forecast to outpace vehicle miles travelled, gasoline demand is forecast to decline. This will force refiners to find a new home for surplus gasoline, shifting long term regional pricing dynamics throughout Canada and the United States. As gasoline flows shift towards different domestic and foreign markets, questions of infrastructure and price depression emerge, ultimately raising the prospect of potential rationalization.