Insight
Thrive, not survive, in the cutthroat Asian refining and oils market
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Report summary
Oil prices face downward pressure in 2026 and 2027 from oversupply as non-OPEC growth exceeds slowing demand. Asia is becoming more dependent on oil imports and selecting the right crudes at the right value will be crucial. Wealthy Pacific economics face structural shortages and have the pricing power to bid products away from other markets in the region. Refining margins may be squeezed again in 2026 after a short boost from heavy maintenance. Growing influence of petrochemical markets in refining operations and more sophisticated evaluation metrics for assessing refinery supply dynamics.
Table of contents
- 1. Slowing growth and weaker fundamentals suggest lower prices in 2026 and 2027
- 2. Crude grades will matter to Asian refineries amid rising dependence on imports
- 3. Refined product flows are changing rapidly due to structural shortages in key Pacific markets
- 4. Refining margins may be squeezed again in 2026 after a short boost from heavy maintenance
- 5. Petrochemical markets are increasingly influencing refining operations
Tables and charts
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Value to refinery versus Brent, $/bbl
What's included
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