Refinery/petrochemical integration: When do chemicals return to adding material value to refiners?

Since 2022, refining margins have declined sharply due to slowing oil demand growth. This presents a challenging environment for refiners to enhance profitability and maintain competitiveness. One promising avenue is the deeper integration of refining and chemical production. However, current overcapacity in base chemicals has tempered the near term benefits of integration, posing questions about its overall value in the long term. When will the chemicals market rebound, and how will this impact the value addition from chemicals? What is the projected contribution of chemicals to integrated sites? How do shifts in yields between fuels and chemicals influence margins? What role do carbon penalties play in shaping the value addition from chemicals?