Insight
US Independent Refiners: Q4 2025 results recap and analysis
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Q4 earnings for the five US Independent refiners wrapped up last week with HF Sinclair (DINO). Valero (VLO) kicked the season off on 29 January, while Phillips 66 (P66), PBF Energy (PBF) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) reported in between. HF Sinclair was the last company to release its 10-K report this Friday. Winter weather and seasonal inventory cuts typically weigh on Q4 refining margins, and this cycle was no exception. While the quarter started strong, crack spreads fell sharply in November and December amid significant light-product inventory builds. Margins were down slightly quarter over quarter, but the Q4 2025 still outperformed Q4 2024, as US refiners shrugged off seasonal headwinds with exceptional operational execution — record-high throughput, stellar mechanical availability, and lower operating costs.
Table of contents
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Our take
- Q4 and full-year performance
- Margins and profitability
- Capital allocation
- Market outlook
- Product supply-demand balance
- Crude
- Low carbon
- Waiting for policy clarity
- 5 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Reported operational statistics – by quarterFY 2025 sources and uses of cash flowReported cash capital allocation – by year
What's included
This report contains:
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