Name: What happens to US refineries when demand declines?
Brand: Wood Mackenzie
SKU: 64866
Price: 500 USD
Availability: OnlineOnly
Author: Wood Mackenzie

Insight 30 March 2017

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Report summary

Despite strong demand growth in 2015 and 2016, US gasoline demand may be entering a long term decline driven by increasing fuel efficiency and shifting demographics. In this insight we investigate the future of gasoline demand in the US and what declining gasoline demand could mean for global trade flows, regional trade flows and refinery profitability in PADD I, PADD II and PADD III. We draw on net cash margin analysis from our Refinery Evaluation Model and gasoline supply, demand and trade from our Product Markets Service to form a comprehensive view of evolving gasoline market dynamics.

US refined product demand forecast
- Fuel efficiency, light vehicle stock, and vehicle miles traveled
Gasoline supply-demand balances
- PADD-level supply-demand balances
- Atlantic Basin and Asia-Pacific supply-demand balances
Impact on Gulf Coast refinery profitability
- Gulf Coast vs Southeast Asia net cash margins comparison
- Gulf Coast net cash margin under depressed gasoline price scenario
Impact on Midwest refinery profitability
- Sub-PADD supply-demand analysis
- Midwest net cash margins under depressed gasoline scenario
- Infrastructure projects from Midwest to East Coast
Impact on East Coast refinery profitability
- 2016 gasoline supply curve to East Coast
- East Coast net cash margins under depressed gasoline price scenario
- 2030 gasoline supply curve to East Coast
Takeaways

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

US demand forecast by productUS gasoline demand & US light vehicle stockGasoline supply-demand balances

Atlantic Basin gasoline balances supply-demand balances & Asia Pacific gasoline balanceRefinery net cash marginsUSGC NCMs with depressed gasoline pricesSub-regions of the Midwest & Midwest gasoline balanceMidwest NCMs with gasoline at discount to USGCMidwest to Northeast product pipelinesIlustrative 2016 gasoline supply curveEast Coast NCMs with depressed Atlantic Basin gasoline priceIllustrative 2030 gasoline supply curve