Insight
What happens to US refineries when demand declines?
Report summary
Despite strong demand growth in 2015 and 2016, US gasoline demand may be entering a long term decline driven by increasing fuel efficiency and shifting demographics. In this insight we investigate the future of gasoline demand in the US and what declining gasoline demand could mean for global trade flows, regional trade flows and refinery profitability in PADD I, PADD II and PADD III. We draw on net cash margin analysis from our Refinery Evaluation Model and gasoline supply, demand and trade from our Product Markets Service to form a comprehensive view of evolving gasoline market dynamics.
Table of contents
-
US refined product demand forecast
- Fuel efficiency, light vehicle stock, and vehicle miles traveled
-
Gasoline supply-demand balances
- PADD-level supply-demand balances
- Atlantic Basin and Asia-Pacific supply-demand balances
-
Impact on Gulf Coast refinery profitability
- Gulf Coast vs Southeast Asia net cash margins comparison
- Gulf Coast net cash margin under depressed gasoline price scenario
-
Impact on Midwest refinery profitability
- Sub-PADD supply-demand analysis
- Midwest net cash margins under depressed gasoline scenario
- Infrastructure projects from Midwest to East Coast
-
Impact on East Coast refinery profitability
- 2016 gasoline supply curve to East Coast
- East Coast net cash margins under depressed gasoline price scenario
- 2030 gasoline supply curve to East Coast
- Takeaways
Tables and charts
This report includes 12 images and tables including:
- US demand forecast by product
- US gasoline demand & US light vehicle stock
- Gasoline supply-demand balances
- Atlantic Basin gasoline balances supply-demand balances & Asia Pacific gasoline balance
- Refinery net cash margins
- USGC NCMs with depressed gasoline prices
- Sub-regions of the Midwest & Midwest gasoline balance
- Midwest NCMs with gasoline at discount to USGC
- Midwest to Northeast product pipelines
- Ilustrative 2016 gasoline supply curve
- East Coast NCMs with depressed Atlantic Basin gasoline price
- Illustrative 2030 gasoline supply curve
What's included
This report contains:
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