An oil & refining markets presentation package: Questions answered
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Table of contents
-
What is next for heavy Canadian crude?
-
Canadian production
- Change in North America crude oil supply
- Heavy oil supply growth
- Heavy Canadian differentials
- Logistics
- Disposition of crude
-
Change is coming
- Outlook for heavy oil
- Biggest x-factor: The IMO
- Widening risk for WTI-WCS
- Takeaways
-
Canadian production
-
Where do RIN obligations belong?
-
Background on RFS
- Objectives and legislation Important legislative points Process and calculation for RVOs Obstacles- Cellulosic
- Obstacles- Blend wall
-
EPA response to petitions
- Industry petitions
-
RIN economics
- Pass-through costs
- Biodiesel RIN vs. Ethanol RIN Refinery yield shift Who pays
- How much do RINs actually cost refiners?
-
Scenarios
- Scenario 1: Status quo- refiners obligated
- Scenario 2: Point of obligation moved to blenders Scenario 3: Point of obligation and point of generation moved to retail Scenario Summary
-
What happens to US refineries when demand declines?
-
US refined product demand forecast
- Fuel efficiency, light vehicle stock, and vehicle miles traveled
-
Gasoline supply-demand balances
- PADD-level supply-demand balances
- Atlantic Basin and Asia-Pacific supply-demand balances
-
Impact on Gulf Coast refinery profitability
- Gulf Coast vs Southeast Asia net cash margins comparison
- Gulf Coast net cash margin under depressed gasoline price scenario
-
Impact on Midwest refinery profitability
- Sub-PADD supply-demand analysis
- Midwest net cash margins under depressed gasoline scenario
- Infrastructure projects from Midwest to East Coast
-
Impact on East Coast refinery profitability
- 2016 gasoline supply curve to East Coast
- East Coast net cash margins under depressed gasoline price scenario
- 2030 gasoline supply curve to East Coast
- Takeaways
-
US refined product demand forecast
-
The outlook for US transport fuels: a bumpy road ahead?
- Global oil demand
-
US demand
- Transport Fuels
- Short term outlook
- Medium term outlook
- Risk
-
Distillate demand
- Outlook
- Risks
- Jet fuel demand
- Global outlook for transport fuels
- Takeaways
-
What happens when US oil production recovers?
- US production influences crude price differentials and refining margins
- What shifts US production from declining to increasing?
- Which producing regions will be the first to respond?
- Will enough infrastructure be built to support the production increases?
- How might US refiners respond to growing US crude supply? Might it sail to other refining markets?
- How wide does Brent-WTI need to be to encourage US crude oil exports?
- Key uncertainties and strategic implications
-
Background on RFS
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Outlook for heavy oil supply & Change in heavy oil supply
- History of the WTI-WCS differentials
- West Canada oil supply-takeaway balance
- Disposition of crude from the WCSB
- Outlook for WTI-WCS
- Fuel ethanol in gasoline pool
- Change in North America crude oil supply from Q1 2017 basis
- Outlook for heavy oil supply & Change in heavy oil supply
- Timeline for enforcement of MARPOL Annex VI SOx emission limit
- Range of displaced fuel oil in 2020 & Product crack spread profile, 2001-2025
- Outlook for WTI-WCS
- RFS initial targets by category
- 38 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
North America product markets short-term outlook August 2024
Monthly forecast of North American refining economics, including balances and crack spreads
$1,900Houston Refining & Oil Markets Forum 2016 Presentations
Wood Mackenzie hosted its 8th Annual Refining and Oil Markets Forum in Houston on September 7th.
$1,350North America product markets short-term outlook July 2024
Monthly forecast of North American refining economics, including balances and crack spreads
$1,900