An oil & refining markets presentation package: Questions answered

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At a recent industry event, we presented our view to over 1000 delegates on the changing petroleum markets landscape. These same insights offering valuable perspective on the challenges ahead are available in this DISCOUNTED bundle of presentations. What can you gain from our analysis and not afford to miss? What next for heavy Canadian crude? Between production, takeaway capacity and demand, things were looking up…but uncertainty is now prevalent Where do RIN obligations belong? The background, economics, costs of the current situation versus the benefits, drawbacks of moving the obligation What happens to US refineries when demand declines? Implications of declining gasoline demand on trade, refinery profitability, competition The outlook for US transport fuels: a bumpy road ahead? Diverging demand trends driven by uncertainty in regulation, consumer preference, technology What happens when US oil production recovers? Future of US production, logistics, prices, crude slates, exports

Table of contents

    • Canadian production
      • Change in North America crude oil supply
    • Heavy oil supply growth
    • Heavy Canadian differentials
    • Logistics
    • Disposition of crude
    • Change is coming
      • Outlook for heavy oil
      • Biggest x-factor: The IMO
      • Widening risk for WTI-WCS
    • Takeaways
    • Background on RFS
      • Objectives and legislation Important legislative points Process and calculation for RVOs Obstacles- Cellulosic
    • Obstacles- Blend wall
    • EPA response to petitions
      • Industry petitions
    • RIN economics
      • Pass-through costs
      • Biodiesel RIN vs. Ethanol RIN Refinery yield shift Who pays
      • How much do RINs actually cost refiners?
    • Scenarios
      • Scenario 1: Status quo- refiners obligated
      • Scenario 2: Point of obligation moved to blenders Scenario 3: Point of obligation and point of generation moved to retail Scenario Summary
      • What happens to US refineries when demand declines?
        • US refined product demand forecast
          • Fuel efficiency, light vehicle stock, and vehicle miles traveled
        • Gasoline supply-demand balances
          • PADD-level supply-demand balances
          • Atlantic Basin and Asia-Pacific supply-demand balances
        • Impact on Gulf Coast refinery profitability
          • Gulf Coast vs Southeast Asia net cash margins comparison
          • Gulf Coast net cash margin under depressed gasoline price scenario
        • Impact on Midwest refinery profitability
          • Sub-PADD supply-demand analysis
          • Midwest net cash margins under depressed gasoline scenario
          • Infrastructure projects from Midwest to East Coast
        • Impact on East Coast refinery profitability
          • 2016 gasoline supply curve to East Coast
        • East Coast net cash margins under depressed gasoline price scenario
        • 2030 gasoline supply curve to East Coast
        • Takeaways
      • The outlook for US transport fuels: a bumpy road ahead?
        • Global oil demand
        • US demand
          • Transport Fuels
          • Short term outlook
          • Medium term outlook
          • Risk
        • Distillate demand
          • Outlook
          • Risks
        • Jet fuel demand
        • Global outlook for transport fuels
        • Takeaways
      • What happens when US oil production recovers?
        • US production influences crude price differentials and refining margins
        • What shifts US production from declining to increasing?
        • Which producing regions will be the first to respond?
        • Will enough infrastructure be built to support the production increases?
        • How might US refiners respond to growing US crude supply? Might it sail to other refining markets?
        • How wide does Brent-WTI need to be to encourage US crude oil exports?
        • Key uncertainties and strategic implications

Tables and charts

This report includes 50 images and tables including:

  • Outlook for heavy oil supply & Change in heavy oil supply
  • History of the WTI-WCS differentials
  • West Canada oil supply-takeaway balance
  • Disposition of crude from the WCSB
  • Outlook for WTI-WCS
  • Fuel ethanol in gasoline pool
  • Change in North America crude oil supply from Q1 2017 basis
  • Outlook for heavy oil supply & Change in heavy oil supply
  • Timeline for enforcement of MARPOL Annex VI SOx emission limit
  • Range of displaced fuel oil in 2020 & Product crack spread profile, 2001-2025
  • Outlook for WTI-WCS
  • RFS initial targets by category
  • Refinery supply vs. blender demand- Gasoline blendstocks
  • Refinery supply vs. consumer demand- Diesel
  • Illustrative cost comparison
  • After pass-through refinery costs
  • Obligation vs Generation
  • US demand forecast by product
  • East Coast NCMs with depressed Atlantic Basin gasoline price
  • Illustrative 2030 gasoline supply curve
  • Growth in global oil demand & Global demand for main transports fuel
  • US distillate demand & heating degree days in New England
  • US jet fuel demand and ASM & US jet fuel demand
  • Miles travelled & Fuel efficiency
  • Global demand for main transport fuels
  • Brent-WTI Cushing differential & US tight oil differentials to WTI Cushing
  • Pre-FID global breakeven cost curve by resource theme
  • 2020 global oil supply gap & Breakeven cost of required new supply
  • US oil supply outlook by resource theme & US tight oil supply outlook by play
  • Overview map of Gulf Coast infrastructure and developments
  • Permian supply and takeaway by destination
  • US crude oil supply & East Coast (PADD I) crude slates & Gulf Coast (PADD III) crude slates
  • Destinations of US crude oil exports & Mexico refinery crude slates
  • Conceptual overview of North American crude oil prices & Brent-WTI and US oil exports
  • US gasoline demand & US light vehicle stock
  • Gasoline supply-demand balances
  • Atlantic Basin gasoline balances supply-demand balances & Asia Pacific gasoline balance
  • Refinery net cash margins
  • USGC NCMs with depressed gasoline prices
  • Sub-regions of the Midwest & Midwest gasoline balance
  • Midwest NCMs with gasoline at discount to USGC
  • Midwest to Northeast product pipelines
  • Illustrative 2016 gasoline supply curve
  • US gasoline demand, US distillate demand, & US jet fuel demand
  • Growth in US oil demand & US demand for transport fuels
  • US gasoline demand & US vehicle miles travelled
  • US working age population and licensed drivers & US Cafe Standards
  • US gasoline demand & US auto sales by segment
  • US distillate demand and industrial production & truck fuel efficiency
  • US distillate demand & Global marine bunker demand

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    What is next for heavy Canadian crude.pdf

    PDF 988.63 KB

  • Document

    Where do RIN obligations belong.pdf

    PDF 1007.41 KB

  • Document

    What happens to US refineries when demand declines.pdf

    PDF 804.02 KB

  • Document

    The outlook for US transport fuels.pdf

    PDF 1.09 MB

  • Document

    What happens when US oil production recovers.pdf

    PDF 1.44 MB

  • Document

    An oil & refining markets presentation package: Questions answered

    ZIP 4.51 MB