An oil & refining markets presentation package: Questions answered
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Table of contents
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What is next for heavy Canadian crude?
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Canadian production
- Change in North America crude oil supply
- Heavy oil supply growth
- Heavy Canadian differentials
- Logistics
- Disposition of crude
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Change is coming
- Outlook for heavy oil
- Biggest x-factor: The IMO
- Widening risk for WTI-WCS
- Takeaways
-
Canadian production
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Where do RIN obligations belong?
-
Background on RFS
- Objectives and legislation Important legislative points Process and calculation for RVOs Obstacles- Cellulosic
- Obstacles- Blend wall
-
EPA response to petitions
- Industry petitions
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RIN economics
- Pass-through costs
- Biodiesel RIN vs. Ethanol RIN Refinery yield shift Who pays
- How much do RINs actually cost refiners?
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Scenarios
- Scenario 1: Status quo- refiners obligated
- Scenario 2: Point of obligation moved to blenders Scenario 3: Point of obligation and point of generation moved to retail Scenario Summary
-
What happens to US refineries when demand declines?
-
US refined product demand forecast
- Fuel efficiency, light vehicle stock, and vehicle miles traveled
-
Gasoline supply-demand balances
- PADD-level supply-demand balances
- Atlantic Basin and Asia-Pacific supply-demand balances
-
Impact on Gulf Coast refinery profitability
- Gulf Coast vs Southeast Asia net cash margins comparison
- Gulf Coast net cash margin under depressed gasoline price scenario
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Impact on Midwest refinery profitability
- Sub-PADD supply-demand analysis
- Midwest net cash margins under depressed gasoline scenario
- Infrastructure projects from Midwest to East Coast
-
Impact on East Coast refinery profitability
- 2016 gasoline supply curve to East Coast
- East Coast net cash margins under depressed gasoline price scenario
- 2030 gasoline supply curve to East Coast
- Takeaways
-
US refined product demand forecast
-
The outlook for US transport fuels: a bumpy road ahead?
- Global oil demand
-
US demand
- Transport Fuels
- Short term outlook
- Medium term outlook
- Risk
-
Distillate demand
- Outlook
- Risks
- Jet fuel demand
- Global outlook for transport fuels
- Takeaways
-
What happens when US oil production recovers?
- US production influences crude price differentials and refining margins
- What shifts US production from declining to increasing?
- Which producing regions will be the first to respond?
- Will enough infrastructure be built to support the production increases?
- How might US refiners respond to growing US crude supply? Might it sail to other refining markets?
- How wide does Brent-WTI need to be to encourage US crude oil exports?
- Key uncertainties and strategic implications
-
Background on RFS
Tables and charts
This report includes 50 images and tables including:
- Outlook for heavy oil supply & Change in heavy oil supply
- History of the WTI-WCS differentials
- West Canada oil supply-takeaway balance
- Disposition of crude from the WCSB
- Outlook for WTI-WCS
- Fuel ethanol in gasoline pool
- Change in North America crude oil supply from Q1 2017 basis
- Outlook for heavy oil supply & Change in heavy oil supply
- Timeline for enforcement of MARPOL Annex VI SOx emission limit
- Range of displaced fuel oil in 2020 & Product crack spread profile, 2001-2025
- Outlook for WTI-WCS
- RFS initial targets by category
- Refinery supply vs. blender demand- Gasoline blendstocks
- Refinery supply vs. consumer demand- Diesel
- Illustrative cost comparison
- After pass-through refinery costs
- Obligation vs Generation
- US demand forecast by product
- East Coast NCMs with depressed Atlantic Basin gasoline price
- Illustrative 2030 gasoline supply curve
- Growth in global oil demand & Global demand for main transports fuel
- US distillate demand & heating degree days in New England
- US jet fuel demand and ASM & US jet fuel demand
- Miles travelled & Fuel efficiency
- Global demand for main transport fuels
- Brent-WTI Cushing differential & US tight oil differentials to WTI Cushing
- Pre-FID global breakeven cost curve by resource theme
- 2020 global oil supply gap & Breakeven cost of required new supply
- US oil supply outlook by resource theme & US tight oil supply outlook by play
- Overview map of Gulf Coast infrastructure and developments
- Permian supply and takeaway by destination
- US crude oil supply & East Coast (PADD I) crude slates & Gulf Coast (PADD III) crude slates
- Destinations of US crude oil exports & Mexico refinery crude slates
- Conceptual overview of North American crude oil prices & Brent-WTI and US oil exports
- US gasoline demand & US light vehicle stock
- Gasoline supply-demand balances
- Atlantic Basin gasoline balances supply-demand balances & Asia Pacific gasoline balance
- Refinery net cash margins
- USGC NCMs with depressed gasoline prices
- Sub-regions of the Midwest & Midwest gasoline balance
- Midwest NCMs with gasoline at discount to USGC
- Midwest to Northeast product pipelines
- Illustrative 2016 gasoline supply curve
- US gasoline demand, US distillate demand, & US jet fuel demand
- Growth in US oil demand & US demand for transport fuels
- US gasoline demand & US vehicle miles travelled
- US working age population and licensed drivers & US Cafe Standards
- US gasoline demand & US auto sales by segment
- US distillate demand and industrial production & truck fuel efficiency
- US distillate demand & Global marine bunker demand
What's included
This report contains:
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