Which Asian refineries will buckle under margin pressure?

The low-margin environment will put the existence of many weak refineries in Asia at risk. Many refineries will run at lower utilisation rates or choose to permanently shutter. In this insight we focus on Asia Pacific excluding China. We present the closure probability of refineries based upon a closure threat index incorporating the following: • Profitability • Degree of petrochemical integration • Recent and future investments • Upcoming major turnarounds • Upstream crude production integration • Carbon intensity • Ownership and age of asset Refineries that fall into the category of high risk are typically: • Less competitive with negative margins and lack complexity and scale • Located in mature markets such as Japan, Australia and New Zealand and cannot compete in the export market • With minimum or no integration with petrochemicals. Standalone assets will be first challenged in any lower margin environment • Weak refineries that are integrated with weak petrochemical assets