Will Mexico’s goal of fuel self-sufficiency cause Mayan crude oil exports to dry up

Under the current Mexican mandate, a goal has been set to achieve fuel self-sufficiency in terms of reducing refined product imports, mainly gasoline, by 2024 and beyond. Under this premise, we analyse the point at which production and domestic consumption of Mayan crude oil meet. If we were to reach this scenario of eliminating exports of Mayan crude oil, we contemplate what heavy sour crude oil alternatives could replace it and the impact on the light-heavy differential in the US Gulf Coast. In this insight, we show our baseline outlook for 2027, along with a reference to the current refining market context in Mexico. Please download the slide pack on the right-hand side under 'Report downloads'.