Global oil supply short-term update - January 2021

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2022. The written document is accompanied this month by a related excel data download only. The slide pack will resume with the early February report. Following the OPEC+ meeting on 4-5 January 2021, Saudi Arabia agreed to make additional cuts of 1 million b/d in February and March 2021. Our assumption continues to hold that OPEC+ will need to continue to exercise similar production restraint as it did in January through the first half of the year. Changes to the supply outlook are small this update: 2020 supply is revised down 60,000 b/d; 2021 down 255,000 b/d; and 2022 up 130,000 b/d. Global supply is forecast to increase by 1.8 million b/d in 2021 to 96.8 million b/d. Production in 2022 grows at a faster pace, adding over 3 million b/d to average close to 100 million b/d, just 0.5 million b/d below the 2019 peak.