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Australian LNG: restocking the North West Shelf


Australian LNG: restocking the North West Shelf

Report summary

Australia’s North West Shelf LNG project needs more gas. Its supply fields are entering decline and liquefaction capacity will be available from 2021. The NWS joint venture is looking to toll third-party gas through the existing liquefaction infrastructure and has recently proposed non-binding key terms. The NWS backfill schedule neatly aligns with an expected shift from an oversupplied to an undersupplied LNG market in 2023/4. Wood Mackenzie believes there are options available that are cost competitive with most pre-FID projects globally. However, the lack of equity alignment between the phases will be a significant hurdle. Agreement within the NWS joint venture on tariff structures and levels may also be difficult. Wood Mackenzie believes a tolling tariff below US$2.50/mmbtu but above US$1.00/mmbtu will be needed for a project to be economically resilient. An alternative to tolling would be an integrated development, but risk-sharing through unitisation would involve complex M&A.

What's included?

This report includes 1 file(s)

  • australia_lng_restocking_the_northwest_shelf.pdf PDF - 238.70 KB

Description

This Upstream Oil and Gas Insight report highlights the key issues surrounding this topic, and draws out the key implications for those involved.

This report helps participants, suppliers and advisors understand trends, risks and issues within the upstream oil and gas industry. It gives you an expert point of view to support informed decision making.

Wood Mackenzie's 500 dedicated analysts are located in the markets they cover. They produce forward-looking analysis at both country and asset level across the globe, backed by our robust proprietary database of trusted research.

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  • Executive Summary
  • North West Shelf LNG faces an uncertain future
    • Competitive economics
  • Value versus volume
    • NWS likely to move towards a tolling model – Browse the frontrunner
    • Appendix
    • Four of the leading backfill options
    • Browse – Woodside’s favoured option
    • Scarborough – the only option operated by a non-NWS partner
    • Clio/Acme – Chevron’s small-scale option
    • Orthrus-Maenad and Geryon – further tie-ins give upside potential
    • Economic assumptions

In this report there are 7 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive Summary
  • North West Shelf LNG faces an uncertain future
    • LNG production and capacity at NWS LNG
    • Participation in the NWS LNG plant and the leading upstream options
    • Four of the leading options
    • Breakeven cost of gas FOB from the North West Shelf
  • Value versus volume
    • Assumed development options
    • Value of each upstream option delivered to Japan
    • LNG production from each upstream option
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