On 7 October 2014, Cairn (40% and operator) announced a discovery at its deepwater FAN-1 well in Senegal. Cairn’s P50 estimate of STOIIP is 950 mmbbls of what looks like good quality oil. Wood Mackenzie assumes a 25% recovery factor, giving recoverable volumes of 238 mmbbls. But the geology is a key risk, with the reservoir having a low net to gross ratio. Under the applicable terms for the block, we believe that the threshold for a commercial development is at least 300 mmbbls.