CBT Spotlight: Production growth shrinking

Our production growth forecasts have dwindled. Driven by severe cuts to investment, the aggregate 5-year CAGR of our Corporate Service coverage has tumbled from 3.4% in 2014 to 1.4% in our latest dataset. A total of 28 companies now face declining output over the next five years; only four will grow at double digit rates during this period. More NOCs face production declines than any other peer group. But our Focused US peer group's rate of growth has been most impacted: we estimate their 5-year CAGR has fallen from a high of 7% in 2015 to just 2% in Q2 2016. There is also a real risk that growth prospects will shrink further without a new wave of investment in growth.