Energy Snapshot: upstream industry themes - August 2017

As the northern hemisphere transitions out of the summer season, the oil price looks steady in the short term, but is likely to face some weakness in 2018. We expect $50/bbl average in 2018 for Brent as our oil cost curve continues to trend lower. Looking at the onshore US, the recent sell off has brought market valuations closer to our upstream valuations, but we see the top US tight oil operators reaching positive cash flow by 2020. Also in upstream, we look at how the North Sea is showing signs that the downturn is turning. Even prior to the recent announcement of the Total/Maersk deal, M&A has sprung back into life. In the gas market, supply continues to grow and we are concerned we will see structurally lower prices in Europe, possibly resulting in low utilisation of LNG in the US. In Asia, China is set to become the biggest importer of gas and has recently raised its already-high renewable targets.