Energy Snapshot: upstream industry themes - December 2017

As opposed to previous decades, global oil and gas commodity prices continue to diverge in the current environment. Fundamentals will drive the Brent oil price to US$75 (real) in 2023, whereas Henry Hub will struggle to rise above US$3 over the same period, according to our latest forecasts. In the oil market, we are currently forecasting US Permian production will peak in 2025; and with slowly rising oil demand, higher cost sources of supply will ultimately be required to fulfill the expected medium-term supply gap. By 2035, we predict Brent oil price will reach US$95 (real). However, the rise in US onshore production will drive a long-term discount to Brent for WTI of US$6, which is a significant increase since our h1 2017 forecast. Additionally this month, we review global gas markets, LNG, US L48 shale operators, electric vehicles, upstream corporate valuations, refining and more.