Insight
Europe’s upstream in transition – is growth an option?
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The European upstream sector is undergoing multiple transitions. The energy mix, corporate landscape and public perception to oil and gas are changing, impacting investment decisions and portfolio planning. At first glance, the outlook looks bleak. Indigenous gas production is in decline and the region is ever more reliant on imports. Public and governmental opinion is increasingly negative towards the industry. The Majors are divesting legacy non-core positions in Europe and bureaucratic issues have delayed key FIDs and start-ups. Yet, there are positives to highlight too. Some of Europe’s fundamental attractions will persist – easy infrastructure access, liberalised markets and competitive fiscal terms. Liquids production will increase in the near term, frontier exploration is abundant, and licensing activity is booming. From this, we recommend three key principles for new small- or mid-cap entrants into Continental Europe.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
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What’s the state of play in Europe?
- Exploration – a tale of contrasts
- The negatives: governments are responding to public opposition with new restrictions
- The positives: the Majors have committed to high-impact exploration and licensing rounds abound
- Production – mixed messages as Europe’s gas imports increase
- Gas outlook: obstacles ahead for the ‘energy transition fuel’
- Oil and condensate outlook: growth projects must adapt to align with environmental concerns
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What are the strengths and weaknesses of the European upstream sector?
- Strengths
- Weaknesses
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Strategies for success in Continental Europe’s upstream
- 1. Don’t be afraid of mature basins, with potential to scale up by playing across borders
- 2. Prioritise regulatory and fiscal stability above all else
- 3. Pick M&A options wisely, learning lessons from the North Sea
- Majors to rationalise further. Where in Europe will the axe fall next?
- More asset sales by NOCs and ‘national champions’ in Central and Eastern Europe?
- Who are the likely buyers?
- Europe’s upstream in transition – is growth an option?
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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European countries with drilling restrictionsEuropean countries with licensing rounds in 2018-20European sales gas production
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European oil and condensate productionGlobal fiscal benchmarking – Europe’s competitive advantageGlobal Environmental Regulatory Framework IndexMajors’ remaining value in Europe (as percentage of global portfolio)
What's included
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