ExxonMobil corporate report

Company Report 07 March 2024

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ExxonMobil's upstream portfolio is in the best shape since the merger with Mobil.

Tom Ellacott

Senior Vice President, Corporate Research

Tom leads our corporate thought leadership, drawing on more than 20 years' industry knowledge.

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Why buy this report?

You’ll get a deep-dive analysis of ExxonMobil’s investment strategy.

We review ExxonMobil’s strengths and weaknesses, plus what we think are the key risks to future performance. We also scrutinise the SuperMajor’s financial performance, asset base and production profile.

What’s the key takeaway from this report?

ExxonMobil’s portfolio is geared for long-term outperformance. Its main growth projects are low cost, deliver double-digit returns at US$35/bbl and boost the Supermajor's resilience to low prices.

The strategy reinforces ExxonMobil's tried-and-tested focus on returns and long-term fundamentals. But it will have to sacrifice financial performance in the near-term to drive value growth out to 2025.

Report summary

ExxonMobil got bold in 2023. The US$64.5 billion acquisition of Pioneer is ExxonMobil's largest deal since its creation through the merger with Mobil in 1999. It followed the Supermajor’s US$4.9 billion acquisition of CCUS specialist Denbury earlier in the year. Both deals are equity funded, preserving its balance sheet. Both are highly strategic. The company now has running room in every strand of its business. The legacy cash engine has top-ranking growth potential and longevity. The four low-carbon pillars of CCUS, hydrogen, biofuels and lithium provide a foundation to build a material business. ExxonMobil is either in the top two in its target verticals or has the potential to get there in the future. The pieces of a credible and differentiated strategy for the energy transition are coming together. Find out more in our ExxonMobil corporate report update.

These reports provide unsurpassed proprietary data and analysis, underpinned by our industry leading asset models to help you understand your peers and competitors, and make the best strategic choices.

Reimagining the Permian could be a gamechanger for Upstream
Downstream leadership is an additional differentiator
Building the pillars of the low-carbon strategy
Targets
Long-term strategic outlook
Recent market performance
Corporate Resilience and Sustainability ratings
- Resilience
- Strengths
- Weaknesses
- Outlook
- Sustainability
- Strengths
- Weaknesses
- Outlook
- ExxonMobil’s guidance and Wood Mackenzie’s take
- Impact of Pioneer
- ExxonMobil has built-in flexibility to drive corporate cash flow breakevens down
- Current strategic positioning
- Overview
- Legacy portfolio
- Growth themes
- Non-core regions
- New Project Returns
- Conventionals and oil sands
- Production outlook
- Overview
- Growth engines
- Oil/gas split
- Portfolio renewal
- Overview
- Exploration
- Overview
- Conventional exploration performance
- Exploration outlook
- Guyana high-impact exploration
- Maturing new exploration plays
- Business development and M&A
- M&A
- Discovered Resource Opportunities
- Overview
- Value and financials
- Refining
- Retail
- Chemicals
- Trading
- Low-carbon strategy
- CCUS
- Hydrogen
- Low Emissions fuels
- Lithium
- The following Insights and Informs provide our take on ExxonMobil's acquisition of Pioneer:
- Strategy updates:
- Company Reports:

Tables and charts

This report includes 27 images and tables including:

Share price movement indexed to January 2020
Benchmarking: Market Premium/discount to Wood Mackenzie’s base case valuation
Resilience ratings: 1) IOC benchmarking; 2) ExxonMobil ratings weighted by Dimension

Sustainability ratings: 1) IOC benchmarking; 2) ExxonMobil ratings weighted by Dimension
Gearing versus breakeven pre-share buybacks over 2024 to 2026*
ExxonMobil’s earnings and operating cash flow guidance versus Wood Mackenzie’s projection
Wood Mackenzie’s forecast of ExxonMobil’s operating cash flow at US$60/bbl*
Cash flow breakeven sensitivity
Wood Mackenzie’s breakdown of ExxonMobil’s upstream NPV10 by region
Upstream Scope 1 & 2 emissions intensity versus operating cash margins (2024 to 2033)*
Strategic fit of upstream regions (pre-Pioneer)
ExxonMobil’s type well WTI NPV,10 breakeven by remaining location
Benchmark: conventional newfield development returns versus investment*
ExxonMobil’s newfield conventional development returns versus investment
Wood Mackenzie: Production CAGR benchmark
Wood Mackenzie: ExxonMobil's production by country and including the impact of Pioneer
Benchmark: % gas production
Value creation through conventional exploration
Downstream free cash flow benchmarking*
Refining net margin (in nominal terms) vs capacity: 2030 vs 2024*
ExxonMobil emissions reduction commitments
Upstream Scope 1 and 2 emissions intensity from equity production*
Evolution of net CCUS capacity by development status
Number of hydrogen projects and gross capacity by company
Valuation assumptions