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ExxonMobil corporate report

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ExxonMobil's upstream portfolio is in the best shape since the merger with Mobil.

Why buy this report?

You’ll get a deep-dive analysis of ExxonMobil’s investment strategy.

We review ExxonMobil’s strengths and weaknesses, plus what we think are the key risks to future performance. We also scrutinise the SuperMajor’s financial performance, asset base and production profile.

What’s the key takeaway from this report?

ExxonMobil’s portfolio is geared for long-term outperformance. Its main growth projects are low cost, deliver double-digit returns at US$35/bbl and boost the Supermajor's resilience to low prices.

The strategy reinforces ExxonMobil's tried-and-tested focus on returns and long-term fundamentals. But it will have to sacrifice financial performance in the near-term to drive value growth out to 2025.

21 May 2019

ExxonMobil corporate report

Report summary

A contrarian investment-led strategy sets ExxonMobil apart from its peers. Spend will jump around 50% to drive value growth from a portfolio that, in the company's own words, is in the best shape since the Mobil merger. The goal is to grow earnings by 140% out to 2025. There will be further erosion of key financial metrics out to 2021 but will this bold blueprint leave peers trailing over the long-term?

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Table of contents

  • Wood Mackenzie perspective
  • Market rating
    • Financial strategy
    • Investment programme
    • Impact on financial performance
    • 1. Current strategic positioning
    • 2. Production outlook
    • 2.2 Longer-term upsides to our base-case modelling
    • 3. Unconventionals
    • 3.1 Permian tight oil
    • 3.2 Tight oil risks
    • 4. LNG
    • 4.1 Managing the pace of upstream LNG development
    • 4.2 Strengthening LNG marketing capability
    • 5. Deepwater: delivering new growth platforms
    • 5.1 Guyana
    • 5.2 Potential for more business development in Brazil
    • 6. Exploration
  • Downstream Strategy
    • Refining
    • Marketing and retail
  • Chemicals
  • New Energies
  • Wood Mackenzie base case valuation metrics
  • Wood Mackenzie base case investment and cost metrics
  • Wood Mackenzie base case production metrics
  • Wood Mackenzie base case reserve and resource metrics
  • Economic assumptions

Tables and charts

This report includes 52 images and tables including:

  • Evolution of ExxonMobil's returns from newfield developments
  • Benchmark: newfield development returns versus investment
  • Benchmarking: ROACE evolution
  • Benchmarking: market premium / discount to WM upstream NPV,10
  • WM projection of ExxonMobil's free cash flow from R&M and Chemicals
  • WM projection of ExxonMobil's underlying EBIT from R&M and Chemicals
  • Refining benchmark: ExxonMobil vs. peers
  • Benchmark: cumulative refinery uplift from IMO regulation
  • ExxonMobil's petrochemical sites by region
  • Upstream EV vs. Upstream NPV,10
  • Upstream portfolio sensitivities vs. NPV,10
  • Current NPV,10 vs. Future NPV,10
  • Base case upstream NPV,10
  • Forecast development expenditure (nominal)
  • Forecast operating expenditure (nominal)
  • New project returns
  • Reported development costs
  • Reported and WM forecast production
  • Oil vs. Gas
  • Liquid production
  • Gas production
  • Total reserves: Wood Mackenzie commercial
  • Total reserves: reported vs. Wood Mackenzie
  • Total reserves: reported vs. Wood Mackenzie
  • Reserve life: reported vs. Wood Mackenzie
  • Base price assumptions
  • Base price assumptions (nominal terms)
  • Base, high and low Brent (nominal terms)
  • High price assumptions
  • Low price assumptions
  • Valuation assumptions
  • Foreign exchange rate assumptions
  • Wood Mackenzie's estimate of ExxonMobil's future investment
  • Benchmark: development spend per unit of production (2018 terms)
  • Benchmark: cash flow breakeven
  • Benchmark: free cash flow generation
  • Strategic fit of upstream regions
  • Historical production targets vs actual and forecast production
  • WoodMac forecast CAGR
  • WoodMac forecast of ExxonMobil's growth from new projects
  • WoodMac forecast of ExxonMobil's production from new projects by resource theme
  • Production upsides by asset
  • Production upsides by resource theme
  • Benchmark: Majors' production from Permian tight oil assets
  • The evolution of ExxonMobil's Permian NPV,10
  • ExxonMobil's upstream NPV,10 by resource theme
  • Benchmark: Gas into LNG
  • Benchmark: evolution of the Majors’ deepwater NPV,10
  • Benchmark: Majors’ deepwater production
  • Conventional reserves discovered (2016-2018)
  • Conventional exploration returns (2015-2017)
  • ExxonMobil's largest refineries by region

What's included

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