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ExxonMobil corporate report

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    21 May 2019

    ExxonMobil corporate report

    Report summary

    A contrarian investment-led strategy sets ExxonMobil apart from its peers. Spend will jump around 50% to drive value growth from a portfolio that, in the company's own words, is in the best shape since the Mobil merger. The goal is to grow earnings by 140% out to 2025. There will be further erosion of key financial metrics out to 2021 but will this bold blueprint leave peers trailing over the long-term?

    Table of contents

    • Wood Mackenzie perspective
    • Market rating
      • Financial strategy
      • Investment programme
      • Impact on financial performance
      • 1. Current strategic positioning
      • 2. Production outlook
      • 2.2 Longer-term upsides to our base-case modelling
      • 3. Unconventionals
      • 3.1 Permian tight oil
      • 3.2 Tight oil risks
      • 4. LNG
      • 4.1 Managing the pace of upstream LNG development
      • 4.2 Strengthening LNG marketing capability
      • 5. Deepwater: delivering new growth platforms
      • 5.1 Guyana
      • 5.2 Potential for more business development in Brazil
      • 6. Exploration
    • Downstream Strategy
      • Refining
      • Marketing and retail
    • Chemicals
    • New Energies
    • Wood Mackenzie base case valuation metrics
    • Wood Mackenzie base case investment and cost metrics
    • Wood Mackenzie base case production metrics
    • Wood Mackenzie base case reserve and resource metrics
    • Economic assumptions

    Tables and charts

    This report includes 52 images and tables including:

    • Evolution of ExxonMobil's returns from newfield developments
    • Benchmark: newfield development returns versus investment
    • Benchmarking: ROACE evolution
    • Benchmarking: market premium / discount to WM upstream NPV,10
    • WM projection of ExxonMobil's free cash flow from R&M and Chemicals
    • WM projection of ExxonMobil's underlying EBIT from R&M and Chemicals
    • Refining benchmark: ExxonMobil vs. peers
    • Benchmark: cumulative refinery uplift from IMO regulation
    • ExxonMobil's petrochemical sites by region
    • Upstream EV vs. Upstream NPV,10
    • Upstream portfolio sensitivities vs. NPV,10
    • Current NPV,10 vs. Future NPV,10
    • Base case upstream NPV,10
    • Forecast development expenditure (nominal)
    • Forecast operating expenditure (nominal)
    • New project returns
    • Reported development costs
    • Reported and WM forecast production
    • Oil vs. Gas
    • Liquid production
    • Gas production
    • Total reserves: Wood Mackenzie commercial
    • Total reserves: reported vs. Wood Mackenzie
    • Total reserves: reported vs. Wood Mackenzie
    • Reserve life: reported vs. Wood Mackenzie
    • Base price assumptions
    • Base price assumptions (nominal terms)
    • Base, high and low Brent (nominal terms)
    • High price assumptions
    • Low price assumptions
    • Valuation assumptions
    • Foreign exchange rate assumptions
    • Wood Mackenzie's estimate of ExxonMobil's future investment
    • Benchmark: development spend per unit of production (2018 terms)
    • Benchmark: cash flow breakeven
    • Benchmark: free cash flow generation
    • Strategic fit of upstream regions
    • Historical production targets vs actual and forecast production
    • WoodMac forecast CAGR
    • WoodMac forecast of ExxonMobil's growth from new projects
    • WoodMac forecast of ExxonMobil's production from new projects by resource theme
    • Production upsides by asset
    • Production upsides by resource theme
    • Benchmark: Majors' production from Permian tight oil assets
    • The evolution of ExxonMobil's Permian NPV,10
    • ExxonMobil's upstream NPV,10 by resource theme
    • Benchmark: Gas into LNG
    • Benchmark: evolution of the Majors’ deepwater NPV,10
    • Benchmark: Majors’ deepwater production
    • Conventional reserves discovered (2016-2018)
    • Conventional exploration returns (2015-2017)
    • ExxonMobil's largest refineries by region

    What's included

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