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Geology vs technology: how sustainable is Permian tight oil growth?

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Report summary

Tight oil production growth from the Permian has been nothing short of remarkable. Technology has played a huge role in the production performance so far, and we think technology-led gains will continue beyond 2017. Conversely though, tighter well spacing and well-on-well interference are starting to highlight inevitable reservoir risks. In this effective tug of war, what wins over the long term?

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Geology vs technology: how sustainable is Permian tight oil growth?

    PDF 1.92 MB

Table of contents

  • Introduction
  • Current tight oil growth goals
  • Sense-checking these ambitions
  • and further investigating the relentless gas gains
  • Upside risks: more technological breakthroughs are happening
  • ‘Technology enhancement scenario’ – production upside of 500,000 b/d
  • Downside risks: subsurface limitations
  • Permian challenges
  • Frac hits
  • Modelling frac hit implications
  • Child well and frac hit effect – lower tight oil peak four years earlier
  • Takeaways and oil price impacts
  • Appendix: modelling detail

Tables and charts

This report includes 17 images and tables including:

Images

  • Guidance from a sampling of Permian tight oil producers
  • Remarkably similar: normalised growth comparison between L48 shale gas and tight oil
  • Barnett EUR - rate of change
  • Wolfcamp EUR - rate of change
  • Breakthrough technologies transforming type curves today
  • Technology upside supply scenario: same future well count but 500,000 b/d of gains
  • Barnett EUR - rate of change
  • Barnett EUR - rate of change normalised
  • Child well query rules
  • Parent to child well performance study: Eagle Ford
  • Downside supply scenario: peaks soon after parent well locations are exhausted
  • Type curve changes - Wolfcamp Deep Basin
  • EUR comparison - Wolfcamp Deep Basin
  • Sub-play type curve detailed adjustments (Technology upside case)
  • Sub-play type curve detailed adjustments (Reservoir downside case)
  • Parent to child well switching schedule
  • Permian sub-play map

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