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Geology vs technology: how sustainable is Permian tight oil growth?

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Report summary

Tight oil production growth from the Permian has been nothing short of remarkable. Technology has played a huge role in the production performance so far and we think technology led gains will continue beyond 2017. Conversely though tighter well spacing and well on well interference are starting to highlight inevitable reservoir risks. In this effective tug of war what wins over the long term?

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  • Document

    Geology vs technology: how sustainable is Permian tight oil growth?

    PDF 1.92 MB

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 17 images and tables including:

Images

  • Guidance from a sampling of Permian tight oil producers
  • Remarkably similar: normalised growth comparison between L48 shale gas and tight oil
  • Barnett EUR - rate of change
  • Wolfcamp EUR - rate of change
  • Breakthrough technologies transforming type curves today
  • Technology upside supply scenario: same future well count but 500,000 b/d of gains
  • Barnett EUR - rate of change
  • Barnett EUR - rate of change normalised
  • Child well query rules
  • Parent to child well performance study: Eagle Ford
  • Downside supply scenario: peaks soon after parent well locations are exhausted
  • Type curve changes - Wolfcamp Deep Basin
  • EUR comparison - Wolfcamp Deep Basin
  • Sub-play type curve detailed adjustments (Technology upside case)
  • Sub-play type curve detailed adjustments (Reservoir downside case)
  • Parent to child well switching schedule
  • Permian sub-play map

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