Geology vs technology: how sustainable is Permian tight oil growth?
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Report summary
Tight oil production growth from the Permian has been nothing short of remarkable. Technology has played a huge role in the production performance so far, and we think technology-led gains will continue beyond 2017. Conversely though, tighter well spacing and well-on-well interference are starting to highlight inevitable reservoir risks. In this effective tug of war, what wins over the long term?
Table of contents
- Introduction
- Current tight oil growth goals
- Sense-checking these ambitions
- and further investigating the relentless gas gains
- Upside risks: more technological breakthroughs are happening
- ‘Technology enhancement scenario’ – production upside of 500,000 b/d
- Downside risks: subsurface limitations
- Permian challenges
- Frac hits
- Modelling frac hit implications
- Child well and frac hit effect – lower tight oil peak four years earlier
- Takeaways and oil price impacts
- Appendix: modelling detail
Tables and charts
This report includes 17 images and tables including:
- Guidance from a sampling of Permian tight oil producers
- Remarkably similar: normalised growth comparison between L48 shale gas and tight oil
- Barnett EUR - rate of change
- Wolfcamp EUR - rate of change
- Breakthrough technologies transforming type curves today
- Technology upside supply scenario: same future well count but 500,000 b/d of gains
- Barnett EUR - rate of change
- Barnett EUR - rate of change normalised
- Child well query rules
- Parent to child well performance study: Eagle Ford
- Downside supply scenario: peaks soon after parent well locations are exhausted
- Type curve changes - Wolfcamp Deep Basin
- EUR comparison - Wolfcamp Deep Basin
- Sub-play type curve detailed adjustments (Technology upside case)
- Sub-play type curve detailed adjustments (Reservoir downside case)
- Parent to child well switching schedule
- Permian sub-play map
What's included
This report contains:
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