Insight
Global oil supply: 5 risks in 2018
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
2018 will be a pivotal year for the global oil market. On the supply side, we will learn whether US tight oil can really deliver, as completions 'catch up'. The fate of the Iranian nuclear deal will also become known, and we will learn more about the ability of Venezuela to weather its current economic storm. As ever, Libya and Nigeria require careful monitoring, as does adherence to the OPEC/non-OPEC deal, especially if prices stay elevated around $70 per barrel. What are the upside risks? Effective project execution could lead to stronger than expected production in Brazil; and after a few years of unplanned outages in Canada, the ramp up of two new large-scale developments present upside risk. Finally, and perhaps more important than the other upside risks, stronger finances – boosted by the recent run up in prices – could improve the outlook for decline rates.
Table of contents
- US Lower 48 well completions play catch up in 2018: crude production to grow 1.1 million b/d
- OPEC/ Non-OPEC production cuts
- Unplanned outages: possible wildcards?
- Non-OPEC supply upside risk: Brazil, Canada, non-OPEC field in focus
- OPEC geopolitical risk
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
-
Completion and Rig countGlobal unplanned supply outages
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Insight
Global oil supply short-term update - March 2026
Outbreak of conflict in the Middle East lowers our global oil supply
$1,350
Insight
Global oil supply short-term update - February 2026
Global oil supply lowered in near term, as pressure mounts on Russian exports
$1,350
Insight
Global oil supply short-term update - January 2026
Global supply revised up due to Venezuela and North America upgrades. OPEC+ policy remains unchanged.
$1,350
