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Country Report 19 March 2019

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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

Report summary

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2020. The written document is accompanied by a related excel data download. Strong non-OPEC supply growth countered by declining OPEC production continues to be a central theme in our short term supply outlook. Revisions to the outlook made since last month echo this: non-OPEC supply has been revised up by around 140,000 b/d in 2019, while OPEC supply is revised down by 160,000 b/d. The focus of uncertainty and risk is on OPEC this year. Crude oil production fell to 30.2 million b/d in March, the lowest level since early 2015. Production cuts primarily led by Saudi Arabia, US sanctions targeting Iran exports and a combination of sanctions and a deteriorating operating environment in Venezuela have all contributed to the fall.

Global supply:non-OPEC strength countered by OPEC uncertainty
Non-OPEC supply: upward revisions add to overall strength of supply
- US Lower 48: anticipated slowdown in Q1 2019, but increasing completion activity in H2 2019
- Bakken and Rockies production rises despite pipeline constraints and contentious regulatory environment in Colorado
OPEC geopolitical woes lead to new 2019 lows
- Venezuela: plunged into darkness
- Libya: El Sharara production ramps up
- Iran: oil exports continue to fall