Country Report
Global oil supply short-term update - April 2020
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The outlook for global liquids supply growth this year is higher due to expectations for increased OPEC output, partly balanced by reductions in non-OPEC supply. For 2021 the reductions in non-OPEC supply gain pace and match the elevated levels of OPEC output. OPEC crude production falls by 0.3 million b/d in 2020, an upward revision of 1.0 million b/d from last month. This reflects a sharp increase in output by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates from March 2020, partly balanced by downgrades to Libya and Venezuela. Non-OPEC liquids production is now forecast to increase by 1.6 million b/d in 2020 and decrease by 1.0 million b/d in 2021. This is primarily driven by lower US Lower 48 production, plus reduced supply from other parts of North America, chiefly western Canada, Latin America and to a lesser extent Europe beyond 2020.
Table of contents
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Global supply: who blinks first? OPEC increases production, non-OPEC supply begins to flex lower
- Anatomy of a new supply crisis
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Global liquids supply outlook: an increase of 1.6 million b/d in 2020 and flat in 2021
- Non-OPEC supply will be more elastic this time
- US Lower 48: rapid response expected as operators slash spending
- Conventional supply is reacting but at a slower pace
- OPEC: Saudi Arabia and UAE increase supply as OPEC+ deal unwinds
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Regional decline rates: North America, Asia and Latin America saw most pronounced impact from 2014/2015 price crash. Analysis as of our H2 2019 long term outlook – 2020-22 will change
What's included
This report contains:
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