Country Report
Global oil supply short-term update - April 2022
Report summary
The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2023. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. A major downward revision to our outlook for supply in Russia overshadows the global picture this month. The level of crude exports from the country have generally remained steady since the start of the war in Ukraine despite the escalation of sanctions targeting numerous individuals and companies and the growth of “self-sanctioning” against buying oil from Russian ports. The ongoing situation remains highly uncertain and fluid, but supply in Russia faces a growing list of logistical and technical challenges.
Table of contents
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Global Supply: base case outlook for Russia supply substantially lowered
- Russia: oil production falls marginally in March, but exports remain elevated
- Non-OPEC Supply: downgrades to Russia, Kazakhstan and Norway offset upgrades to China
- US Lower 48: OFS constraints temper growth in H1 2022
- OPEC: production increases continue as planned for OPEC+, despite ongoing market volatility
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