Global oil supply short-term update - April 2026

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply. The slide deck is accompanied by a related excel data download. Supply outages have risen sharply through March due to the Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively shut-in as the conflict in the Middle East continues. We assume the Strait remains closed for six weeks from the start of the conflict, with reopening in mid-April. Vessels transiting the Strait gradually return to more normal activity levels through May. This leads to an average loss of over 8 million b/d of crude supply from the key Middle East producers in April, as production has been shut in. We assume flows largely return to normal within 3-4 months once exports resume, but this could be longer for Kuwait and Iraq oil supply.