Global oil supply short-term update - August 2023

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. On 3 August Saudi Arabia announced that it would extend its additional voluntary cut of 1 million b/d to include September. This is to continue to support the stability of the market and could be further extended or deepened in subsequent months. Russia also announced that it would continue with its voluntarily additional cuts by reducing output in September by 300,000 b/d. There are also several looming risks to supply. The leader of the Libyan National Army, Khalifa Haftar, has threatened to implement oil blockades, if a revenue sharing agreement cannot be reached by the end of August. This could shut in up to 90% of production. In the US Lower 48, a decline in rig count since January, has led to downward revisions, and there is downside risk if rig activity continues to fall.