Country Report
Global oil supply short-term update - December 2019
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2021. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. Global supply is still forecast to show strong growth in 2020, adding 1.8 million b/d. A further one million b/d of growth is projected for 2021. We have revised global supply downward by around 35,000 b/d in 2019, 2020 and 2021. Our base case already included continued production restraint by OPEC+ through 2021, with strong over compliance assumed for Saudi Arabia through the first quarter of 2020, to support the market. Non-OPEC supply growth averages around 2 million b/d in 2020 and 2021 remains strong. Additions are finely balanced between US and non-US – both of which contribute close to 1 million b/d of additional liquids supply in 2020.
Table of contents
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Limited supply changes despite OPEC+ agreement for deeper cuts
- Non-OPEC: minor changes, Russian condensate exempt from OPEC+ cuts
- US Lower 48: onshore unchanged
- OPEC: new deeper cuts and growing unrest in North Africa and the Middle East
- Unrest poses threat to 2020 OPEC supply
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