Insight
Global oil supply short-term update - December 2025
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Report summary
We have made minor downward revisions to our supply outlook this month, driven by the UK and unconventional supply. Our OPEC+ view remains unchanged, following the group’s decision in late November to stick to the existing agreement to pause unwinding of cuts through Q1 2026 due to an expected oversupply in the market. We continue to assume that the pause of unwinding remains through Q2 2026, before resuming for Q3 only. This implies only a partial return of the overall volume, with output remaining stable through Q4 2026 and 2027. Non-OPEC supply growth remains strong this year. Latin America becomes the key growth region from 2026, overtaking North America, as US Lower 48 oil production starts to decline.
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