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Country Report 11 February 2022

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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

Report summary

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2023. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. Supply concerns continue to be a focal point for the oil market in February. Tensions between Russia and the West have been rising over the gathering of Russian troops along the Ukraine border; in the United Arab Emirates, drone attacks were reported, targeting strategic sites and oil facilities; militant attacks and pipeline sabotage continue to afflict Nigeria; and the Iran nuclear talks, to restore the JCPOA, continue in Vienna. But rising geopolitical tension and the resulting higher price environment also offer upside. In particular, the raised price forecast for 2022 in this update supports additional drilling activity onshore US Lower 48.

Global supply: OPEC+ and mature producer struggles offset by increasing US onshore activity
- Russia production edges higher in January as Ukraine tensions rise
- Non-OPEC Supply: Downward adjustments to the North Sea offset North America gains
- US Lower 48: production returns to pre-pandemic levels by 2023
- OPEC: steady as it goes, agreement to roll over the current pace of OPEC+ production increases