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Global oil supply short-term update - January 2026
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Report summary
The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply. The slide deck is accompanied by a related excel data download. This month we have made upward revisions to our supply outlook, largely driven by Venezuela and North America, including the US Lower 48, Gulf of Mexico and Canada oil sands. Our OPEC+ view remains unchanged: OPEC+ will pause unwinding cuts through Q1 2026, as reiterated in the latest group meeting in early January. We continue to assume that OPEC+ will extend the pause through Q2 and bring back some additional volumes through Q3 2026 only, with output then remaining stable through the rest of 2026 and 2027. Non-OPEC supply growth remains strong. Latin America becomes the key growth region from 2026, overtaking North America, as US Lower 48 oil production starts to decline.
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