Global oil supply short-term update - July 2021

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2022. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. OPEC+ met on 1 July, and again on 2 July, but could not reach a consensus on the further lifting of production restraint beyond the end of July, when the current agreement lapses. In the absence of any new agreement, we have kept our assumptions for the pace of OPEC+ production increases largely unchanged from last month. Overall global supply has been revised up by 200,000 b/d for 2021, to 96.0 million b/d. Upgrades focus on Mexico, Iran and the US Lower 48, and there are relatively minor downgrades to Iraq and Brazil. As OPEC+ production cuts are eased, global supply is forecast to rise to 100.5 million b/d in 2022, which represents a more substantial upward revision of 390,000 b/d from the previous month.