Global oil supply short-term update - July 2023

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. Another week of tepid oil prices and further signs of weaker demand growth incentivised both Saudi Arabia and Russia to make additional cuts through August. Saudi Arabia will extend its additional voluntary cut of 1 million b/d, and Russia agreed to remove a further 500,000 b/d from the market. It remains to be seen how fast these additional cuts will materialise, or how long they may be extended. Changes to our outlook are weighted to the downside this month and are mainly driven by Canada, Saudi Arabia, US Lower 48, Azerbaijan and Iraq. In this update, we have also extended our short-term forecast through 2025, with non-OPEC supply accounting for the majority of the 1.3 million b/d gain in global supply.