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Country Report 10 June 2021

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Report summary

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2022. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. The latest OPEC+ meeting took place on 1 June, during which they quickly decided to maintain the early April agreement to increase output gradually in June and July. Again, this was in line with our previous assumptions and results in our outlook for global supply showing only minor revisions this month. Overall global supply has been revised down by 120,000 b/d for 2021, to 95.8 million b/d. The downgrades are mainly to the US (predominantly NGLs) and to a lesser extent Colombia and are partially offset by upgrades to Canada and Kazakhstan. Production in 2022 has been revised down by 60,000 b/d, to 100.1 million b/d. This again mainly reflects downgrades to US NGLs and is partially offset by upgrades to Canada and Kazakhstan.

Global supply: gradual easing of OPEC+ production restraint remains on course
- Non-OPEC: minor revisions driven by North America
- Colombia: widespread protests curtail crude oil production
- US Lower 48: forecast remains broadly unchanged as excess cash goes toward debt repayment
- OPEC: outlook unchanged as OPEC+ continue with planned easing of cuts
- Iran nuclear deal talks continue as Presidential elections loom
- Venezuela: downward revision of 60,000 b/d for May
- Development ramps up ahead of OPEC+ cuts easing