Global oil supply short-term update - June 2025

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. On 31 May, OPEC+ agreed to continue with accelerated production increases in July, marking the third consecutive month at higher rates of return. Our updated assumption is that OPEC+ maintains this accelerated return rate of production cuts, until this tranche of cuts is fully unwound. With demand forecasts unchanged and market uncertainty ongoing, this puts downward pressure on prices, further reducing non-OPEC supply, especially in the US Lower 48. This month’s revisions show OPEC+ unwinding cuts through October, then stabiliszing through 2026. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, and Russia drive the more significant upward revisions, while US Lower 48 and NGL supply have been revised lower.