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Country Report 09 March 2021

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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

Report summary

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2022. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. Two key events have shaped the changes to our global oil supply outlook this month. Firstly, the impact of freezing temperatures in the US during February; and secondly, the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting on 4 March, where it was agreed to continue with production restraint levels from March into April, with the exception of Russia and Kazakhstan, who will be allowed to increase oil production. In our latest analysis, global supply has been revised down by 450,000 b/d in 2021, to 96.0 million b/d.

Global supply: US deep freeze and OPEC rollover impacts H1 2021 production
- OPEC+ rolls over March cuts; exception of further small rise in output for Russia and Kazakhstan
- Non-OPEC supply: sweeping US winter storms, and a mixed forecast for the North Sea
- US Lower 48: winter storm impact was severe but short-lived
- OPEC: downward revisions as OPEC+ rolls over production cuts