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Country Report 04 March 2022

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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

Report summary

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2023. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. The global supply outlook is dominated this month by two major risks to the forecast: the impact of sanctions against Russia and the potential lifting of sanctions in Iran. We assume for this update that exports continue from Russia, but the risk remains that supply could be impacted by further escalation of action against Russia’s oil exports or growing “self-sanctioning” against buying oil from Russian ports. For Iran, talks to restore the JCPOA look to be nearing an end point. A positive conclusion of the deal and the lifting of sanctions could lead to 1 million b/d of oil being restored to the market within six to nine months.

Global supply: risks to oil supply dominated by sanctions and Iran nuclear talks
- Russia: production at risk from wide ranging sanctions
- Raft of sanctions introduced against Russia
- Risks to Russia crude oil supply
- Non-OPEC Supply: upgrades to US NGLs offset downgrades to GoM, Russia and Canada in 2022
- US Lower 48: high oil prices boost drilling outside of the Permian
- OPEC: production increases rolled over as planned for OPEC+, despite market volatility