Insight
Global oil supply short-term update - March 2026
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply. The slide deck is accompanied by a related excel data download. On 28 February, US and Israeli forces attacked Iranian targets, resulting in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader. Iran has retaliated with strikes on Israel and US military bases in the GCC and warned ships against using the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has increased energy market volatility and led to a downgraded supply outlook, mainly due to reduced Iranian output. The losses are partially offset by upgrades across OPEC+ as it resumes unwinding production cuts from April; and upgrades to US Lower 48 as strong rig activity in the Permian and higher prices drive output up. The impact of the Middle East conflict on supply outside of Iran is limited, as we assume the Strait of Hormuz is closed for two weeks with flows returning to normal quickly thereafter.
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