Global oil supply short-term update - May 2021

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2022. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. OPEC+ met for the second time in April to review the current agreement for unwinding supply cuts. Having established a path to relax cuts through May, June and July at the 1 April meeting, OPEC+ concluded a hastily re-arranged ministerial gathering on 27 April that re-affirmed its stance. Our forecast for global supply is unchanged in 2021 and has been revised up by 80,000 b/d in 2022. Downgrades this month focus on the US Lower 48, due to a more severe impact than expected of the winter storms on February production; as well as minor downgrades to Saudi Arabia and Iraq NGLs. Offsetting this are upgrades to China, following strong Q1 production data; Iran, as supply creeps higher on the back of increased exports; and Russia, where April production increased strongly as production cuts are eased.