Country Report
Global oil supply short-term update - May 2021
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2022. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. OPEC+ met for the second time in April to review the current agreement for unwinding supply cuts. Having established a path to relax cuts through May, June and July at the 1 April meeting, OPEC+ concluded a hastily re-arranged ministerial gathering on 27 April that re-affirmed its stance. Our forecast for global supply is unchanged in 2021 and has been revised up by 80,000 b/d in 2022. Downgrades this month focus on the US Lower 48, due to a more severe impact than expected of the winter storms on February production; as well as minor downgrades to Saudi Arabia and Iraq NGLs. Offsetting this are upgrades to China, following strong Q1 production data; Iran, as supply creeps higher on the back of increased exports; and Russia, where April production increased strongly as production cuts are eased.
Table of contents
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Global supply: status quo remains for growth in 2021 and 2022
- OPEC+ holds decision to increase supply gradually
- Non-OPEC supply: upward revisions mainly led by China
- OPEC: minor upward revisions as Iran baseline creeps up
Tables and charts
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