Country Report
Global oil supply short-term update - May 2022
Report summary
The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2023. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. Another major downward revision to our outlook for supply in Russia dominates the forecast this month. Whilst the level of crude exports has increased since the start of the war in Ukraine, domestic refinery crude runs have contracted sharply, along with declining domestic demand. There is a high level of uncertainty amid the ongoing situation and Russian supply continues to face a growing list of logistical and technical challenges.
Table of contents
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Global supply: base case outlook for Russia supply again lowered substantially
- Russia: new EU sanctions under discussion as production declines sharply in April
- Non-OPEC supply: downgrades to Russia, Norway and GoM offset upgrades to China and Kazakhstan
- US Lower 48: drilling activity remains strong but completions slow
- OPEC: Libya oil blockade outages slow OPEC growth in Q2
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