Insight
Global oil supply short-term update - May 2026
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply. The slide deck is accompanied by a related excel data download. Global oil supply has been lowered as the Middle East conflict continues and vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz remain severely restricted. We assume a greater impact on key Middle East supply, with flows now expected to being to recover through May and June. We expect most producers to fully recover by year-end, while Iraq could take longer due to greater technical complexity and reservoir maturity. We have made upgrades to UAE production, where we now forecast a ramp-up through 2027 as it will no longer be constrained by quotas having left OPEC and OPEC+ on 1 May.
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