Global oil supply short-term update - November 2020

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2022. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. Global liquids supply is forecast to fall by 5.3 million b/d in 2020, to 95.2 million b/d, and increase by 1.5 million b/d in 2021 to bring total supply to 96.7 million b/d. This represents downward revisions of 0.2 million b/d for 2020 and 0.9 million b/d for 2021 since our October update. The key reason behind the substantial change for 2021 is our new assumption that the OPEC+ cuts will be maintained at current levels through the first half of the year. OPEC+ cuts were due to begin easing in 2021, but downward pressure on demand along with the rapid return of Libya crude has led us to alter our assumption. Production in 2022 sees a stronger increase of 2.9 million b/d to an average 99.6 million b/d, an upward revision of 0.2 million b/d.