Global oil supply short-term update - November 2022

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2024. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. Although our outlook for supply is little changed from the previous month’s, we are now entering a period of heightened risk for supply. Firstly, this stems from the OPEC+ decision last month to cut November crude production by 2 million b/d. But in practice, how much of a reduction will occur and how will OPEC+ policy evolve? Secondly, what impact on supply will come from the EU’s ban on crude and oil product imports from Russia? These are due to come into effect from 5 December and 5 February respectively. The planned implementation of the G7 price cap to coincide with the EU ban on oil adds further uncertainty, with many details still to be finalised. Our current assumption is that there will be a major drop in Russian crude production of more than a million b/d in early 2023.