Insight
Global oil supply short-term update - November 2025
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Our supply outlook has been revised up this month, driven by upgrades to US Lower 48 oil and NGLs. The upgrades are partly offset by some downward revisions to OPEC+ through H1 2026. The OPEC+ group agreed on 2 November to unwind 137,000 b/d of the 1.65 million b/d voluntary cut in December, for a third consecutive month. They also agreed to pause unwinding in Q1 2026 due to an expected oversupply. We assume that the pause of unwinding continues through Q2 2026, before resuming for Q3 only. This implies only a partial return of the overall volume, with output remaining stable through Q4 2026 and 2027. The trajectory of non-OPEC growth remains strong. North American growth slows as US Lower 48 oil production starts to decline in 2026, but upward momentum is sustained by rising output of US NGLs and further increases in supply from Canada. Latin America becomes the key growth region from 2026, supported by Brazil, Argentina and Guyana.
Table of contents
- Service update
Tables and charts
No table or charts specified
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Insight
Global oil supply short-term update - October 2025
OPEC+ begin to unwind next tranche of cuts. We assume only a partial return of volumes due to a weakening outlook for prices.
$1,350
Insight
Global Oil Supply 10-year investment horizon outlook 2025
Oil demand remains resilient, with energy security and affordability key aspects in the transition to low-carbon energy
$1,350
Insight
Global oil supply short-term update - September 2025
Upgrades to global supply driven by US Lower 48 crude and NGLs, Brazil, United Arab Emirates and Argentina
$1,350
